AIPAC Memo

U.S. Must Prevent a Nuclear-Capable Iran

June 18, 2026

For 47 years, the Iranian regime has been at war against America and its own people. At President Trump’s strong direction, America, working together with Israel, has decimated Iran’s leadership, nuclear program, and military assets, and created the opportunity for a diplomatic agreement. The initial Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that has been reached with Iran raises significant questions. The MOU provides for sanctions relief to Iran in exchange for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and vague Iranian commitments on its nuclear program.  

As negotiations commence on a final nuclear agreement, Congress must receive complete information on the deal and play a critical role in ensuring a final deal meets President Trump’s stated objectives for the war: “Obliterate Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and production capability, annihilate its navy, sever its support for terrorist proxies, and ensure the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism never acquires a nuclear weapon.”

A final deal must permanently and verifiably end the regime’s nuclear program—including the removal of all enriched uranium from Iran and the dismantlement of all enrichment sites. The final deal should also address Iran’s illicit ballistic missile and drone program and end the regime’s financing of terror groups that wreak havoc around the world.

Elements of this agreement raise serious concerns for a final accord.

Front-loaded concessions: Immediately upon signing of the MOU, the United States agrees to begin the process of lifting the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and waive all sanctions necessary to allow Iran to export oil. Based on current oil prices this could amount to more than $5 billion a month in revenue to the Iranian regime.

  • The MOU also states that “upon the implementation” of the agreement, the U.S. “undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” potentially as much as $100 billion. The MOU is silent on what implementation steps Iran must take to gain access to the funds.The agreement does specifically say that once released, the funds will be paid to any beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of Iran. This language appears to allow payments to IRGC-controlled entities, the Iranian military and weapons suppliers.
  • While the agreement does not indicate any direct U.S. funds will be provided to Iran, the MOU will permit Iran to reap significant economic benefits.

Limited nuclear language: Under the MOU, Iran reaffirms that it “shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons.” Iran made similar commitments in signing the Non-Proliferation Treaty and accepting the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

  • The MOU provides for a 60-day period to negotiate a full nuclear agreement. Iran does commit that at a minimum any final deal will “resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material…with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the IAEA.”
  • By not requiring the removal from Iran of all enriched uranium, in all forms, the MOU opens the possibility that Iran will be left with a significant nuclear capability. The MOU is silent on whether Iran will dismantle its nuclear infrastructure or be allowed to maintain an enrichment capacity. The MOU is also silent on the anytime, anywhere inspections necessary to ensure compliance.

Limits on Israeli action: The agreement says the U.S., Iran and “their allies in the current war… declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.” The language would appear to mandate Israel end efforts to disarm Hezbollah, despite Israel not being a party to the MOU and ongoing Hezbollah attacks.

  • The MOU could undermine the ceasefire agreement reached in early June between Israel and Lebanon with U.S. support. That ceasefire expressly stated that any agreement to cease hostilities must be reached directly between Israel and Lebanon, and “not through any separate track.”

Terrorism, missiles and drones excluded: The agreement includes no provisions to address Iran’s support for terrorism, or its missile or drone program. Without such restrictions, Iran could use the billions of dollars in sanctions relief to rebuild its military and increase funding and weapons shipments to Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, and its other terror proxies across the region.

Removal of terrorism sanctions: The MOU requires the U.S. to undertake with regional partners the development of a plan with at least $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran that would be implemented with a final agreement. Given the IRGC’s deep control of the Iranian economy, and specifically the Iranian construction sector, it is hard to see how such a plan could be implemented without massive benefit to the U.S.-designated terrorist group.

  • The MOU also calls for the complete elimination of all sanctions on Iran under a final agreement, including U.N. Security Council resolutions and all U.S. primary and secondary sanctions. The MOU makes no mention of a mechanism to reimpose sanctions if Iran cheats.
  • U.S. primary sanctions on Iran were initially imposed for terrorism reasons. This agreement envisions the lifting of terrorism sanctions, with no commitments from Iran to end its support for terrorism.

Bypasses Congress: Article 14 of the agreement requires a final agreement be adopted through a binding UNSC resolution, with no mention of Congress’ constitutional role in approving international agreements.

Cements the regime’s standing: The MOU requires the U.S. not to interfere in the internal affairs of Iran. This provision suggests the U.S. will end efforts to promote democracy and human rights in Iran. It would require an end to internet freedom and broadcasting efforts. The MOU would leave the U.S. with no response to the brutal regime's murder earlier this year of tens of thousands of Iranian protestors.