AIPAC Memo

Israel-Iran War Analysis

June 26, 2025

On Monday, June 23, President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

The importance of the last 12 days cannot be overstated. Israel and the United States eliminated the capability Iran had to produce nuclear weapons.

Now that the ceasefire has been achieved, the United States must ensure Iran adheres to the agreement and is not allowed to rebuild its nuclear and missile programs.

Unfortunately, shortly before the ceasefire went into effect, Iran launched additional ballistic missiles at Israel, killing four Israelis.

And then after the ceasefire went into effect, Iran fired three more missiles at Israel.

Israel had every right to forcefully respond to this attack, but following a phone call between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Israel "refrained from additional attacks" at the president’s request.

This war was only necessary to begin with because of Iran's illegal pursuit of a nuclear weapon and its rejection of repeated diplomatic overtures by President Trump.

We thank President Trump for closely coordinating with our ally Israel throughout the past 12 days to dismantle the key elements of Iran's nuclear and missile programs which were threats to America, Israel, and the world.

President Trump's just and principled attack on three nuclear sites in Iran helped protect America's security and expedite the end of this war.

What Was Accomplished?

By all measures, Israel’s military efforts to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, combined with limited American airstrikes, were wildly successful.

Iran no longer maintains a capability to produce nuclear weapons.

  • Iran no longer maintains a capability to enrich uranium. The Natanz enrichment facility, which housed more than 87% of Iran’s operating centrifuges was completely destroyed.
  • The Fordow enrichment facility, which housed the remaining 13% of Iran’s operating centrifuges, is now inoperable, inaccessible and likely destroyed.
  • The Isfahan uranium conversion facility and metal fabrication facilities were destroyed. Uranium stockpiles at Isfahan were successfully targeted and buried in rubble.
  • Weaponization sites, laboratories, centrifuge manufacturing sites and storage facilities were successfully eliminated.
  • Israel eliminated more than a dozen key Iranian nuclear scientists and likely scores of additional personnel at various nuclear sites that were targeted.

Israel also destroyed much of Iran’s ballistic missile capability.

  • Israel believes it destroyed well over two-thirds of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers.
  • Last October, Iran fired over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in a single attack. By the end of the recent fighting, it appears Iran was only capable of firing small salvos of less than 10 missiles.

What Was the Cost to Israelis?

Israel has been at war with Iran and its terrorist proxies for 20 months, following Hamas’ horrific October 7 massacre.

  • Iran and its allies have launched approximately 45,000 missiles, rockets, and drones at the Jewish state in that time.

Over the past 12 days, all of Israel again came under direct attack from Iranian drones and missiles.

  • Iran launched approximately 560 missiles and 1,110 attack drones at our ally.
  • More than 65 missiles hit Israel, damaging civilian infrastructure including a mosque, hospital and cancer research institute.
  • 29 people in Israel were killed in the 12-day war, including a 7-year-old girl undergoing treatment for leukemia and a 95-year-old Holocaust survivor.
  • More than 3,400 people were injured by Iranian attacks.
  • Nearly 11,000 people have been forced to evacuate due to destruction caused by missile impacts.

The damage to the Israeli home front was significant, but far less than originally predicted.

Our ally was able to fend off the majority of Iran’s attacks thanks to close and ongoing U.S.-Israel defense cooperation, including decades of congressional support for missile defense programs like Arrow and the integration of Israel into CENTCOM.

Since 1990, Congress has appropriated nearly $5 billion for the Arrow family of missile defense systems. This funding helped achieve an interception rate of over 90%, saving countless lives.

What's Next?

  • The United States must verify the current intelligence assessment that Iran’s capacity to enrich uranium and build a bomb has been destroyed.
  • The United States must work with the international community to make clear to Iran the severe repercussions it will face if it attempts to rebuild its nuclear or missile programs.
  • The United States must work with Israel to rebuild our ally’s weapons stockpiles, including its arsenal of missile defense interceptors. A strong Israeli military is the best deterrent to Israel’s enemies.
  • The United States must continue maximum pressure on Iran, including sanctions on Iranian oil sales, until Iran agrees to permanently and verifiably abandon its nuclear program and enrichment ambitions, destroy its ballistic missiles, and stop funding, arming and supporting terrorists.
  • Congress should pass the Enhanced Iran Sanctions Act to make clear to Iran the only path to a brighter economic future is through radical change in all facets of the regime's dangerous behavior.
  • Finally, the United States must seek to take advantage of the new dynamic in the region to press for the release of the 50 remaining hostages in Gaza and strive for normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia.