AIPAC Memo

Why Israel Had to Act

June 18, 2025

Last week, Israel launched a military operation to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and to attack its increasingly dangerous ballistic missile arsenal. This operation came after the IAEA officially declared Iran was not in compliance with its non- proliferation obligations and the regime ignored President Trump’s 60-day deadline to reach a peaceful agreement to resolve the nuclear issue.

Israel’s actions were necessitated by four primary factors: First, intelligence demonstrating Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program, including weaponization activity. Second, Iran’s refusal to reach a negotiated agreement. Third, Iran’s rapid expansion of ballistic missile production. And finally, the closing of the window of opportunity to act.

A nuclear-capable Iran is a threat to America, Israel and the entire world. America must stand with our ally Israel as it works to rid the world of the Iranian nuclear threat, and ensure the Jewish state has the resources needed to keep its people safe and complete this vital mission.

Iran was on the cusp of a nuclear weapon.

  • Iran has been inching closer to a nuclear weapon for years, but recent intelligence obtained by Israel made absolutely clear Iran had initiated a secret plan to weaponize its uranium stockpile.
  • According to Prime Minister Netanyahu, Iran was “marching very quickly. They would achieve a test device and possibly an initial device within months and certainly less than a year.”
  • According to data from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), using its facilities at Natanz and Fordow, Iran could enrich enough weapons-grade uranium (WGU) for a bomb in a matter of days and 11 bombs in just one month.
  • Iran was racing to increase its stockpile of near-WGU, expanding it by more than 50% in the past three months alone.
  • In its latest reporting, the IAEA confirmed that Iran had tested a full-scale hemispherical implosion device, a key triggering mechanism for a nuclear bomb.
  • The day before Israel’s operation began, the IAEA Board of Governors declared that Iran was in violation of its obligations under Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This marked the first time such a resolution had passed in 20 years.

Negotiations had failed to stop Iran.

  • President Trump provided Iran a 60-day window to negotiate an agreement to peacefully dismantle its nuclear program. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff put a strong offer on the table.
  • After two months of negotiations, it became abundantly clear that Iran was using talks to stall for time and had no intention of accepting America’s minimal requirements.
  • Iran rejected the U.S. offer. As President Trump has said, Iran should have taken the deal.
  • In full consultation with the U.S., Israel took action on day 61 of President Trump’s 60-day window for negotiations.

Iran was dramatically increasing its arsenal of ballistic missiles.

  • Iran was also taking steps to drastically increase its production of ballistic missiles. These missiles have proven highly capable of causing significant casualties and major damage to critical infrastructure.
  • Before Israel’s strikes and Iran’s ballistic missile launches over the past few days, Iran was estimated to have between 2,000 and 3,000 ballistic missiles. Israel estimates that Iran had plans to produce 300 missiles per month, in an effort to build an arsenal of close to 20,000 missiles in the coming years.
  • By achieving this arsenal, Iran could have easily overwhelmed Israel’s air defense systems — causing catastrophic damage far beyond what it has been able to achieve in the current fighting.

The window to act was closing.

  • In response to an Iranian ballistic missile attack against Israel last October, the IDF significantly degraded Iran’s air defense systems. Iran has since been rushing to repair these systems to make it more difficult for Israel to strike again.
  • Following the fall of the Assad regime, Israel had access to Syrian airspace to conduct bombing runs on Iran. Israel could not guarantee this window would remain open.
  • Israel significantly degraded Iran’s proxies over the last two years, reducing the threat of retaliatory actions by Hamas and Hezbollah. Waiting to act could have allowed Hezbollah time to rebuild its capabilities.
  • In the cases of India, Pakistan and North Korea, the United States’ intelligence system failed to detect these countries’ moves to build nuclear weapons. Israel was not in a position to make the same mistake.

The Way Forward

America must stand with our ally Israel as it works to remove the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program. America must make clear to Iran the consequences of attacking Israel and ensure our ally has the resources it needs to defend itself and destroy Iran’s enrichment and ballistic missile programs.